Posts in category: Exclusive

While everyone’s talking about big AI breakthroughs, there’s a quieter story most people miss: one that starts in a small Dutch town called Veldhoven. That’s where ASML, a $300 billion company, is quietly powering the entire AI revolution from behind the scenes.

Despite the dominance of U.S. tech giants and growing Chinese ambitions, it’s ASML’s machines, massive, intricate, and nearly irreplaceable, that make today’s most advanced chips possible.

These machines, known as lithography systems, are essential for producing the semiconductors found in everything from smartphones to massive AI data centers. Each of ASML’s machines can cost up to $400 million and is about as long as a train car.

Big names like Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI depend on these machines to make the advanced AI chips powering today’s breakthroughs. Without ASML, AI development would slow down a lot.

Because these machines are so important, ASML has gotten caught up in global political conflicts. From tariffs and export bans to political instability in Europe and rising tensions between the U.S. and China, this Dutch company is right at the heart of a major geopolitical battle.

How ASML Became the Core of AI

Since starting in the 1980s, ASML has spent years refining its lithography technology. Their most advanced machines use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light to carve tiny, nanoscale patterns onto silicon wafers.

This technique lets chipmakers fit billions of transistors onto a single chip, and these transistors give AI models the power to learn, adapt, and create new things.

Chris Miller, a professor at Tufts University and author of “Chip War,” summed it up best: “It’s the most complex machine humans have ever created, drawing on a supply chain that stretches across Europe, the United States and Asia, and harnesses fields like material science, physics, manufacturing, design and optics.”

ASML’s supply chain is an international web of thousands of contributors, from mirror makers in Germany to laser specialists in the U.S. The company doesn’t just manufacture tools; it brings together the world’s leading minds and materials to build machines no one else can.

The rise of AI has driven demand for these machines even higher. In 2023, ASML posted record revenue of $32.3 billion. Projections suggest that the figure could reach as much as $65 billion by the end of the decade.

Politics Disrupting Progress

But recent developments have cast a shadow over this growth. Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s CEO, has had to deal with an escalating series of political challenges.

“Seemingly every week,” Fouquet finds himself navigating fresh political turbulence. Just last month, former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on European imports, only to walk it back two days later. Still, the move shook investor and client confidence, especially as some of ASML’s key components are shipped to the U.S.

At the same time, the Netherlands’ foreign minister was in Beijing, engaged in sensitive talks about possibly lifting bans that prevent Chinese firms from acquiring ASML’s top-tier equipment. Before anything could be finalized, the Dutch government collapsed, halting negotiations entirely.

This swirl of instability isn’t just bureaucratic noise. Every political shift, every new restriction, has the potential to disrupt ASML’s supply chain or customer base.

Caught in the Crossfire Between Giants

ASML’s unique position has made it a geopolitical chess piece. The U.S. government, particularly under both Trump and Biden, has pushed hard to limit China’s access to advanced technology.

In 2019, the Trump administration successfully pressured the Netherlands to block exports of ASML’s EUV systems to China. More recently, the Biden administration expanded those restrictions to include even older models.

As a result, ASML’s revenue from China has fallen significantly. “After trade restrictions,” the company expects sales to China to fall to about 25% of its annual revenue from nearly half in the second quarter of last year.

With India on the brink of releasing its much-anticipated discussion paper on crypto-assets, the regulatory landscape is entering a decisive phase. According to Sumit Gupta, Co-founder and CEO of CoinDCX, this is a moment of immense opportunity, one that could define India’s leadership in the global Web3 ecosystem.

Earlier, under India’s G20 Presidency, global standard-setters made a significant move toward alignment with the release of the IMF-FSB Synthesis Paper on Policies for Crypto-Assets, now widely seen as the most comprehensive global blueprint to address crypto-related risks and challenges.

This document doesn’t propose new rules. Instead, it consolidates existing guidance from the IMF, FSB, FATF, IOSCO, and BIS into a roadmap for phased implementation through 2025.

It presents nine high-level recommendations and strongly warns against blanket bans, urging instead for clear licensing, risk-based regulation, and data-driven oversight. India now stands at a strategic crossroads: either align with this maturing global approach, or risk losing out on what could be its next trillion-dollar opportunity.

When The Crypto Times asked Mr. Sumit Gupta about India’s readiness and potential in this rapidly evolving crypto landscape, he laid out a compelling roadmap. Below is his perspective, shared in an exclusive conversation with The Crypto Times’ lead journalist Dishita Malvania, on where India currently stands and what must happen next to turn promise into policy.

Crypto Has Emerged as a Core Pillar of Finance

Crypto has emerged as a core pillar of the global financial system, not a fringe speculation, but a serious asset class and infrastructure layer. The current bull market has reignited interest from both institutional and retail investors.

Traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, JP Morgan, and others are increasing their involvement daily. Meanwhile, traditional payment behemoths such as Mastercard and Visa are integrating stablecoins into their global offerings.

In an exclusive conversation, when asked, Mr. Sumit Gupta How India fits into this global picture. He said:

“India stands at a pivotal crossroads. We’ve topped the Global Crypto Adoption Index two years in a row, with strong participation across both centralized and decentralized platforms. The question now is how to enable a regulatory environment in India which is not reactive but can seize the moment and build on the back of our success with Digital India initiatives. We must seize this moment—not just to protect investors, but to position India as a Web3 powerhouse. And that requires policy action, not just intent.”

Indian Builders Are Already Serving the World

India is home to more than 900 Web3 startups. Five of them have already achieved unicorn status. We have over 75,000 professionals working in the blockchain industry, forming the third-largest Web3 developer pool globally. And the sector is projected to contribute over $1.1 trillion to India’s GDP by 2032.

Yet, 60% of Indian Web3 startups are registered outside India, not because they want to leave, but because they need clarity. Incorporating overseas often allows them to access global capital, banking rails, and supportive regulatory structures.

The World Isn’t Waiting

Across the globe, regulators are already taking clear positions:

• Europe has adopted MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation)—a unified, pan-EU regulatory framework.
• The United States is seeing momentum behind the FIT21 Act to establish consumer protection and compliance standards.
• The UK has published draft legislation to integrate crypto into its broader financial services regime.
• UAE and Bahrain have embraced crypto with comprehensive, innovation-friendly frameworks.
• Even Bhutan has embraced crypto and is increasingly localizing it with its indigenous setup, powered by hydropower and fueling the growth of its futuristic Geiphu Mindfulness City.

How is India Placed Among All This?

India demonstrated key leadership during its G20 Presidency, helping shape the FSB-IMF Synthesis Paper on global crypto regulation. It was a milestone event, one that laid out the direction for all standard-setting bodies and global economies. Domestically, we have taxation and KYC/AML frameworks in place.

But what we indeed need is a holistic, forward-looking overarching regulatory framework, with guardrails that support both consumer safety and innovation.

A Clear Roadmap: What India Can Do Now

If India wants to lead from the front, here are five concrete steps we can take:

1. Constitute a Parliamentary Select Committee on Crypto Assets that can hold comprehensive stakeholder discussions to develop a phased, overarching regulatory framework.
2. Reinvigorate regulatory sandboxes for Web3 innovation—similar to what Singapore did in 2016 and something which is already planned for in our own GIFT City.
3. Establish an Inter-Ministerial Group on Web3 like we did for 5G in telecommunications, where various ministries can explore and plan Web3 initiatives in line with their own priorities.
4. Recognize and support compliant players and enforce existing guidelines to ensure safer investor participation.

We can’t miss the Next $1 Trillion Opportunity

Blockchain is not just another tech wave. It’s the foundation for tokenization, digital identity, decentralized infrastructure, and new models of governance and finance. Indian states like Maharashtra and Telangana have already deployed blockchain for public recordkeeping.

This is a national growth lever. With the right policy push, Web3 can generate over 800,000 jobs by 2030, supercharge our tech exports, and enhance financial inclusion through on-chain finance.

We’ve seen this playbook before—with IT, with mobile, with UPI. Let’s not hesitate this time.

“As a founder who has been building in this industry for nearly a decade,” Mr. Gupta emphasized, “I can tell you: India has everything it takes—talent, capital, user adoption, and intent. What we need now is clarity.”

Key Takeaways from the IMF-FSB ‘Synthesis Paper’

The paper presents a globally aligned vision for crypto regulation. Here are some of its most urgent and actionable recommendations:

1. Addressing macroeconomic and fiscal risks
2. India must evaluate how crypto-assets might impact monetary sovereignty, especially with the rise of foreign-denominated stablecoins.
3. Building a sound financial stability framework
4. Lessons from FTX and Terra reinforce the need for strict oversight of multi-function crypto service providers.
5. Tackling regulatory arbitrage through global consistency
6. “Same Activity, Same Risk, Same Regulation” is a core principle. Without consistent rules, crypto firms will migrate to friendlier jurisdictions, creating enforcement gaps.
7. Strengthening legal foundations and market conduct rules
8. Clarifying the legal classification of crypto-assets and updating contract laws is essential for effective regulation and investor protection.
9. Prioritising environmental and AML/CFT safeguards
10. India should lead by institutionalizing FATF compliance and implementing the travel rule to counter illicit flows.

Looking Ahead: A Time to Act

The roadmap extends through 2025, with milestones in supervisory coordination, data gap reduction, and cross-border regulatory alignment. India has a real opportunity to guide the Global South and shape rules that balance innovation with stability.

CoinDCX believes India’s forthcoming discussion paper must reflect this global maturity while addressing local realities.

That includes:

• Clear tax rules aligned with the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).
• Tiered regulatory obligations based on risk and function.
• Inter-agency coordination to reduce friction.
• Support for innovation through forward-looking experimentation.

The global conversation has moved past “ban or embrace.” It’s now about governing with foresight, regulating with flexibility, and innovating with accountability.

As India prepares to release its own consultation paper, this is a critical opportunity for all stakeholders: industry, academia, Web3 builders, and policy enthusiasts, to shape the country’s regulatory future. The Synthesis Paper is rich in content and deserves a close read.

In the last few months, the US-China trade war brought turbulence in the global market. Whether traditional markets or digital currencies, every asset class experienced a roller-coaster ride. However, these trade tensions are now fading away as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping move toward finalizing a trade deal. Thus, it has sparked speculations of the Altcoin Season 2025 kicking in.

Following a rocky stretch marked by reciprocal tariffs and export restrictions, the US and China have agreed to a truce that may relieve some of the most punishing economic burdens on both parties. The agreement, the result of high-stakes talks in London and Geneva, is subject to formal signatures.

It would also establish a framework for China to resume supplying the US with rare earth elements: minerals used in the automotive, semiconductor, and technology industries. The US, in turn, lowered the tariffs on Chinese products. The tariffs were cut down from 145% to 55%, and China has offered to drop its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

After sealing the deal, in a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote:

“Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me. Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!). We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The deal holds a pivotal position due to a number of reasons. First, it eases concerns of a more serious crisis in the global supply chain, especially in the sectors dependent on rare earths, with China producing 60% of the world’s total and almost 90% of the processing. Second, it sends a message that both economic superpowers are ready to back down from the abyss and bring some predictability to international trade patterns.

Nevertheless, not everyone is happy about the deal. Most US companies, particularly small and medium enterprises, claim that tariffs are still too high and will still serve as a tax on American consumers and businesses.

Retail giants such as Walmart, which import most of their products from China, have threatened to raise prices. Meanwhile, small business advocacy groups are labelling the new tariff regime as a death sentence to those who rely on Chinese imports.

However, the deal has brought some optimism to the international markets. The S&P 500, say, was modestly higher as the traders rejoiced at the possibility of the stabilization of US-China relations and the revival of the essential supply chains

Not only the traditional investors but crypto fans are also feeling relieved with this deal. Investors and analysts are now speculating that this can escalate the crypto market to the next Altcoin Season.

Analyst Eyes Altcoin Season 2025 Amid Tariff Relaxation

Crypto influencers went to social media to point out a rising feeling in the digital asset community that the US-China trade deal may be the catalyst that starts the Altcoin Season in 2025. A crypto trader named ‘Vantage Crypto’ on X spotlighted that June is historically the month of Altcoin Season. The trader also discussed the historical data and showed how previous Altcoin Seasons started in June.

In the past, periods of macroeconomic stability and the resurgence of risk appetite, often triggered by geopolitical breakthroughs, have been linked to capital rotations in the cryptocurrency market. According to Vantage Crypto’s post, here’s a concise breakdown:

• June 15, 2017: The Altcoin market cap saw 70x rallies until January 2018.
• June 15, 2020: Popular altcoins surged by 1,649% following a drop in Bitcoin dominance.
• June 15, 2021: Altcoins rose 194% while Bitcoin price dipped.

Once the dominance of Bitcoin stagnates or declines, investors are more willing to get better returns in altcoins, which causes sudden price increases and extreme volatility. The backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating and the broader markets supported by the trade deal is viewed as an opportune background for such a rotation.

Final Thoughts

A US-China trade breakthrough and the cyclical nature of the crypto market have aligned to create the conditions that many expect to see a potentially explosive Altcoin Season in 2025. However, the trade deal is not a panacea, tariffs remain elevated and certain industries will still feel the pinch.

Nonetheless, it is an important de-escalation that will put confidence back into global markets and, by extension, into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The takeaway here, to crypto investors, is simple: keep an eye on the macro headlines, be mindful of any changes in Bitcoin dominance.

They should get ready to experience the volatility and opportunity that only an AltSeason can bring. The planets could be aligning to produce the next big rotation in digital assets, and that could dominate the rest of 2025 for traders and investors.